My Advice To Barack

Spend! Spend! Spend!

Is There An Editor In the House?

i don't read much of Dick Morris' work, as he is a political whore who cares more about selling books than he does engaging in actual intelligent discourse. But when I do, I usually can't make it through more than two or three paragraphs before getting bored. In any event, this post is not about Morris, it is about the so-called editors at The Hill, a respected Congressional newspaper. In his most recent column for the newspaper, Morris analyzes Hillary Clinton's strategy of pulling out of South Carolina prior to this Saturday's primary. One sentence jumped out at me:

Blacks in Nevada overwhelmingly backed Obama and will obviously do so again in South Carolina, no matter how loudly former President Clinton protests.

Blacks in Nevada are going to support Obama in SC? Is there a massive bus convoy from Las Vegas to Myrtle Beach? My rudimentary search found no non-stop flights from Reno or Vegas to Charleston. It is amazing that so many African-Americans in Nevada will spend the time and money it takes to get to South Carolina and break various election laws by voting twice.

I know, I know. we all know what Morris meant. But I don't care if you write dumbass things as much if you don't write like a dumbass.

Truly Terrifying

My co-worker, who blogs as Great Stone Face, sent me an inspired Kurt Vonnegut quotation:

True terror is to wake up one morning and discover your high school class is running the country.

Apropos of Nothing (Tyra Banks Edition)

Has anyone else out there watched "America's Next Top Model?" Someone must be watching as I think it is in its 9th or 10th season. What kind of ego does Tyra Banks have? If you ever watch the show, turn it to another channel until the very end, when Tyra is announcing who gets to stay and who has to go. Just about every reality show has the same ending. But what I find interesting is where the host stands or sits when he/she announces who is in and who is going home (or at least to a hotel pending the end of the taping of the show). Look at these photos:



Notice that in each case, the host and judges are at the same level or below the contestants. But look at Tyra in her reality show, when she is delivering the good or bad news. Ignore (if you can) the rant. She has placed herself above the contestants. They all have to look up at her. And then she has the gall to lecture this one girl that she doesn't know what Tyra's been through. Read about her difficult life. Oh, the humanity!

What a egomaniacal dope.

Great Video: 1 to 100

Posted many places but I watched it on Stone Face Blog.

Maybe It Should Have Been Left Unsaid

Obviously, when it comes to politics, I have no idea what I'm talking about. But I'll try again. I am now leaning to the idea of a Hillary victory overall. She has successfully changed the story line from "change" to "race." Also, I know some pretty smart people who are buying what Hillary and her supporters are selling about Obama. For example, my dear mother cites Obama's lack of experience as her primary reason for supporting Hillary. And a co-worker of mine was actually persuaded by this hit-job on Obama. As Andrew Sullivan points out, Richard Cohen links Obama and Louis Farrakhan even though Obama's representative, David Axelrod, explicitly stated that Obama disagreed with his pastor's support for Farrakhan. But if intelligent people are falling for this stuff, I suspect its working nationwide.

As for the Republicans: What a glorious mess. A friend of mine believes, and I agree, that to have a real shot at the nomination, a 2008 Republican candidate needs to win one of Michigan, SC, and FL. Romney has his win. I think its between McCain and Huckabee in SC (and possibly Fred Thompson), and the loser of that battle versus Giuliani in Florida. That makes for a possible three way race on February 5, and hopefully a brokered convention.

Its a Good Day For Kucinich

Not only has Dennis Kucinich convinced a Nevada State Court that he should be in an MSNBC debate; but numerous people in Texas have reported seeing a UFO last night.

Tunnel Vision on Islam and Iran

Fred Thompson is no fool. That is why his statement at the most recent Fox News debate is so scary and disturbing. When discussing the recent incident in the Strait of Hormuz involving Iran Revolutionary Guard and the US Navy, Thompson said:

"I think one more step and they would have been introduced to those virgins that they're looking forward to seeing."

Apparently, Thompson does not understand that the Iran Revolutionary Guard is a branch of the Iranian military. It is not a group of martyr wannabes, who would, I guess, expect virgins upon thier martyrdom. I assume, of course, some of the Revolutionary Guard are, but not all. In other words, it is not Hamas. This is a classic example of conflating a political/military enemy of the United States with terrorists in order to inflame fear.

This is why the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment is so dangerous. It designated the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. Therefore, under Thompson's thinking, they must all be suicide-bombing Islamists who deserve to die. Scary!

Bush in Israel

If you need a reason to be glad January 21, 2009, is fast approaching, look at this picture:


He just looks too damn happy to be receiving a lame T-shirt.

Political Daze

What just happened? I'm feeling dizzy. I have no idea what to make of the New Hampshire results for the Dems. My analysis still holds up for the Repubs, I guess. Can you think of a more exciting, nail-biting election?

Division Is Not his Best Subject

Bret Stephens has a mostly unremarkable column in the Wall Street Journal basically letting us know how lucky we are to live in America. But his first paragraph (which really has little or nothing to do with the remainder of the column) is just plain silly. He writes:

Barack Obama, still fresh from his victory in Iowa last week and confident of another in New Hampshire tonight, has as his signature campaign theme the promise to "end the division" in America. Notice the irony: The scale of his Iowa victory, in a state that's 94% white, is perhaps the clearest indication so far that the division Mr. Obama promises to end has largely been put to rest.

In other words, Obama's win in Iowa demonstrates that division based on race no longer exists in America. Now, this might come as a surprise to those in the inner cities of this country, and in our justice system, but even if it were true, Stephens is misrepresenting Obama's claims of division.

Obama does not talk of a racial division in the country. Instead, he speaks, quite eloquently, of a political division. I can only assume that Mr. Stephens wants to further his own belief that racial division (and I assume unequal opportunity) needs no cure in this country. But why he feels a need to preface his column with a misleading claim of irony escapes me.

Who Would They Want?

One significant problem for the Republicans this year is that they seem to hate all their potential standard bearers:

Mitt Romney - Mormon flip-flopper
Rudy Giuliani - Pro-gay, anti-gun, pro-choice
John McCain - weak on immigration, pro-campaign finance reform, weak on tax cuts
Mike Huckabee - unelectable, tax-hiking, big-spender
Fred Thompson - good on issues, but doesn't seem to care

So the question is: If Republicans could choose a candidate, who would it be? the only person I can think of is Newt Gingrich. Any other ideas?

NH (and after) Predictions

It is not hard to predict Obama and McCain victories. But what happens then? I figure if Obama wins by more than 8 or 9, he will definitely win South Carolina (where recent polls have him up by double digits already) and probably in Nevada (where the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, a very influential group in Las Vegas, is likely to endorse Obama). If Hilary had more money than Obama, I would say she still had a good chance in the big states voting on February 5. But Obama will have equal financial ability and a lead in the polls. So, unless Hilary can do something dramatic, or Obama does something dramatically stupid, I think the nomination is his.

As for the Republicans, I have no idea what happens next, but I'll take a stab at it. I think McCain's win in NH leads him to a win in Michigan, and kills any real chance Romney has. But Huckabee, with a third place finish in NH, then probably wins in South Carolina, where he has a significant lead in the polls. then it all comes down to Florida. If Romney is all but out by then, I think his votes break for McCain and Huckabee more than Giuliani. Therefore, I think Giuliani's current lead in Florida disappears. And believe it or not, I think Huckabee wins Florida. What then? I guess Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani fight it out on February 5. I don't know who has the most money - probably Giuliani. My guess is that the three candidates start relying on different places for support. Giuliani looks to NY, CA, NJ, etc, places with moderate republican leanings. McCain probably looks West, and Huckabee looks South. that would seem to be a winning strategy for Giuliani because his states are more delegate rich. So I'll take a flier and say it is Obama vs. Giuliani in the general.

Wow!

What a set of results! First, I must admit to my failure as a political seer. I had no idea the results would be Huckabee by 9 and Obama by 8, with Hilary third. This throws both races into turmoil, with only 5 days until New Hampshire.

What effect does all this have on the races? Damned if I know. I think the Huckabee win helps McCain and Giuliani (and obviously Huckabee). It helps McCain because Romney, who was already faltering in Hew Hampshire, has lost any positive momentum, and McCain appears likely to win NH. It helps Giuliani (gulp!) because it means no Republican candidate is likely to be the front runner before the Florida primary. Therefore, Giuliani still has a good chance there, and will go to the Super Tuesday primaries on 2/5 with a win.

Obama's win is, I think, transformative. As Juan Williams noted on Fox News last night - who'd have thought a black man could win a caucus in such an extraordinarily white state as Iowa? I think this will propel Obama to wins in South Carolina, and a number of other Southern states. Why? Because, I think a large portion of the African-American vote has been going to Hilary on the assumption that a black man cannot win in November. After Iowa, that assumption is much less valid. Hilary might still win in NH, which will reenergize her campaign, but what was once a not so competitive race after SC becomes a real dog fight. A loss in NH will really hurt her, and require something big to recover.

Iowa Caucuses

Now the fun begins. And already, I have to change my predictions. I now think it is Obama and Romney. This probably kills Huckabee's chances. If Edwards beats Hillary, he still has a fighter's chance. If she comes in second, and Edwards is third, he is history.